Tag Archive | scenarios

ELNM Topic 8: Ubiquitous Computing

To Do

Write a blogged opinion:

  • For Estonians: compare the current situation in Estonia to the four scenarios of “Estonia 2010”. Which one is the closest to the reality?
  • How important do you deem the social cohesiveness (or caring) in reaching ubicomp?

A development programme “Estonia 2010” was initiated in Estonia to predict and analyse future trends.The four possible scenarios proposed were

  • “Militaristic information oasis” – “little angry country” with good technological progress but little openness and overall freedom. “Military Estonia”.
  • “South Finland” – soft-spoken, well integrated into Europe (and decisively distanced from Russia), but with low innovation capacity. “Subcontractor Estonia”.
  • “The Ferryman” – well-developed, but fully transit-based economy. Innovation and ICT are only to serve the main goal and thus of inferior importance. “Merchant Estonia”, which is quite alike to the ‘Singapore’ scenario of Himanen seen in a previous lecture.
  • “Grand Slam” – the best realisation of both geographical location (transit) and innovative and educational potential. “Innovation/ICT Estonia”.

In my opinion it’s clare that current situation in Estonia does not meet the first and third point. But I a’m afraid that closest to the reality is the “South Finland” – the low-growth scenario, which entails the Nordic countries, similar to the societies of ideology. The reason idakaubanduse and relations of the absence or low level, consequence of the inability of traditional industries and agriculture goods get rid of the co-feature of high unemployment and social problems increase. This scenario means for Estonia, the relatively low-tech and low added-value sectors of the economy, hence the poor by standard of living. At the same time it needs to engage in a much more low-growth conditions, social equalization and regional problems leveling. Residents need to have a satisfactory standard of living, the effort, the more work it is therefore self-development and co-operation in collecting social capital. Maybe it leads Estonia to “Grand Slam” scenario.
I think the social cohesiveness (or caring) in reaching ubicomp is very important.

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